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ROUND ONE, ACC TOURNAMENT

Friday, March 12th, 2010

Hey, look who picked three out of the four games tonight. Not bad! I usually bat about .500 at best in this predicting thing. Of course this isn’t about me; this is about the brave young men who play basketball in the ACC. So what happened?

Some upsets, that’s what happened. Three of the four lower seeds advanced to the quarterfinals. Of course, we warned you yesterday that something like this would happen. Not that I need to remind you, but since the league switched to 11 and 12 seeds, the bottom seeds have performed better than the higher seeds in the opening day.

With seeds #9-12 going 3-1 tonight, the lower seeds are now 13-10 against seeds #5-12.

No 9 VIRGINIA OVER No 8 BOSTON COLLEGE, 68-62
This is the one I missed and I still don’t understand it. Seriously, who saw the Cavaliers ending their nine-game slide tonight, without their best player, Sylven Landesberg?

The fact is, the Cavs returned to slow-mo ball, frustrating Boston College, while running a perfectly balanced offense. Sammy Zegliniski led the way with 21, but five Cavaliers scored in double figures.

For the Eagles, Joe Trapani picked a nice night to go cold. Did I say cold? I meant frozen. The “Ice Man” was 0-7 from the floor. Of course the turning point in the game was late in the first half. Up six, B.C. scored a total of four points in the finals 10 minutes of the half, allowing TIna Fey’s alma mater to turn a six-point deficit into a nine-point lead.

That’s it for Boston College…season is over. Time to go watch some re-runs of Doug Flutie’s hail mary.

MIAMI OVER WAKE FOREST, 83-62
I bet you thought I was crazy picking Miami. They’ve done nothing over the last two months to prove they even belong in this tournament (you put USC-Upstate on your schedule? Really? Still can’t believe that), but I just had a feeling. Maybe it was just hunger cramps, but either way, I got this one right.

The fact is, outside of Virginia, Wake Forest has looked terrible. Once teams figured out that they had ZERO outside shot, there was nothing Wake could do about it. Tonight, they made Miami look like a Final Four team…and that’s not easy to do.

The Canes jumped on the Demon Deacons early, building an early double-digit lead, taking a 14-pt cushion into halftime. No shame for Wake at this point though; bad teams get hot, good teams have bad halves. You go into the locker room, give a speech, make an adjustment, own the first four minutes of the second half and save your season. Or…

Let the Hurricanes start the half on an 8-0 run, turning a manageable 14-point deficit into a 22-point, “Hey, who do we have coming in next year?” moment.

Hopefully for Dino’s sake (he’s still never won any post-season game at Wake), they have someone coming in who can shoot some three’s. Wake again failed to crack 25% from behind the arch (4-17) and had zero chance to rally. Can someone finally agree with me…Ishmael Smith, most overrated player in the ACC?

Actually, that’s a little harsh. I’m just still a tad bit touchy about when ESPN’s Mark Jackson said Smith would be a great NBA player (or something to that effect).

Of course, the big question for Wake Forest is, now what? N.C.A.A. or N.I.T? Overall, they’re 19-10, 9-7 in the ACC. They have a RPI of 42 according to Ken Pom and an SOS of 10. Not bad. Yet, they’ve dropped five of six games now.

I still believe Wake Forest is in. However, they were once looking like a 4-5 seed, but now they’ll be lucky to be an 8-9 seed. Of course, does it really matter? They won’t win a game in the tournament.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE OVER CLEMSON, 59-57
I think everyone saw this one coming from a mile away. Not just because the Wolfpack under Sidney Lowe have a knack for winning a game or two in this tournament, it’s just that Clemson under Purnell have never won any meaningful game away from Littlejohn.

As for NC State, it was finally nice to see them put in a winning strategy, stick to it, and then actually win with it. Of course, I’m talking about getting the ball down-low to Tracy Smith, the conference’s most underrated player.

Tonight, Smith took 15 of State’s 44 shots (34%), making 39% of their made baskets. As a team, they hit 52%. Of course, what’s most shocking was the fact that the Wolfpack actually struggled with Clemson’s infamous press. They turned it over 19 times and point guard, Javier Gonzalez, was awful (which is actually pretty normal for him). He turned the ball over four times (to only one assist), hitting just 1-6 shots.

For Clemson, they’ll still get into the tournament. You don’t leave out the ACC’s fifth best team, no matter how quickly it stumbles in the conference tournament. The problem is, they’ll probably be a seven seed and will more than likely face a middle-of-the-pack Big East Team. Advantage: Not Clemson.

GEORGIA TECH OVER NORTH CAROLINA, 62-58
Clearly, this was my favorite game of the night. Heading into the 7PM showcase, I actually thought I would feel sorry for the Tar Heels when they lost this one (and yes, I knew they wouldn’t win this one), but I was wrong. I was full of glee until the end.

The best part though had to be the way they lost. Down four with a buck thirty on the clock, Larry Drew II, threw yet another lazy pass, D’Andre Bell picked it off and the game was over, no matter how hard Georgia Tech tried to lose it at the end by missing free throws.

There was just something fitting about watching Carolina’s dim NCAA hopes fade away with yet another turnover by a guard.

Of course there were other enjoyable moments. I wouldn’t be a Duke fan if I didn’t mention that in a do-or-die situation, Carolina’s starters shot only 13-48 from the floor tonight (1-13 from three). I’m no Will Hunting, but that’s wicked bad.

I could go on, but that would be disrespecting the Yellow Jackets. Ga Tech’s big boys, Lawal and Favors went off inside, combining to score 30 tonight (on 12-16 shooting). Favors in particular had maybe his strongest game of the year. He was 7-8 tonight, 4-5 from the line. He grabbed nine boards, blocking five shots along the way. Those were the kind of numbers I expected from the freshman this season.

LOOKING AHEAD – QUARTERFINALS

Okay lower seeds, I hope you had your fun. I hoped you celebrated your victories because it’s over. Like I said yesterday, while the lower seeds love to shock the world on Thursday, come Friday, reality steps in and bitch slaps them across the face. The big boys take care of business…at least 75% of them do.

From yesterday:

Since 1998, three of the top four seeds have advanced to the semis 10 times in 12 years.

So what do we got to look forward to?

No 9 VIRGINIA VS. No 1 DUKE
No chance. I’m saying it. There’s no denying it. Sorry Cavaliers, you’re not taking this one. In fact, I’ll go out on a limb here. If Virginia beats Duke tomorrow, I’ll change my blog’s name to “Big Virginia Balls” for the remainder of the season (including NCAA Tournament).

No 12 MIAMI VS No 5 VIRGINIA TECH
If the Canes want to play in the NCAA Tournament, they’re going to need to sweep the ACC tournament. Too bad they won’t beat Virginia Tech. How about a stat prediction? I bet Delaney hits more free throws by himself than the entire Miami team. Ballsy.

No 7 GEORGIA TECH VS No 2 MARYLAND
I picked the Yellow Jackets to upset Maryland in my predictions last night, and I saw nothing from Tech tonight to change my mind. The fact is, the conference tournaments are where underachieving teams come to shine.

No 11 NORTH CAROLINA STATE VS No 3 FLORIDA STATE
The first one to 5o wins this one. That will be the Seminoles.

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Devils will take on the Wahoo’s and are a prohibitive favorite

Thursday, March 11th, 2010

The Duke Blue Devils may have caught a bit of a break with Virginia’s 68-62 win over Boston College.  The reason is that the Eagles matched up a little better with Duke.  The Cav’s broke a nine game losing streak with today’s win and showed a lot of heart by playing together with a depleted roster.

Look for Duke to pound the ball down low against Virginia and play a lot of players.  There is no doubt that the Cav’s will play with emotion but that shouldn’t be a major factor as the game wears on.  Unlike most teams, Duke elected not to have a practice in Greensboro, electing instead to train in Durham.

The Blue Devils will have an extended shoot around in the morning , but the Duke assistants are scouting the Wake Forest game which is about to tip off.  You can bet that the Duke coaching staff is already hard at work prepping the team for their first round game.

Not to look ahead, but it is highly likely Duke will face the winner of the Wake Forest-Virginia Tech game.  What does that mean for Duke?  Well, while Duke is 2-0 against the aforementioned, it was the two most physical ACC games they played all season.  One other thing, Duke will not have the Cameron Crazies to pull them through and we all know Duke set a team record by going 17-0 at home.  So, one thing to watch for is how Duke fares on a neutral court with most fans pulling against them.

The afternoon session of the tournament was not well attended, but that is somewhat tradition.  First off, a lot of people are still working and the night session is always the one where people will show up and that is especially true with local favorite North Carolina playing.  One must also consider that four teams had byes and many of those fans sit out the first day even if they have tickets.  FWIW, Wake fans are now helping fill the Coliseum.

Depending on the outcome of the rest of the days games, tickets could become available at good prices.  Should the Tar Heels lose, a lot of their fans will likely want to leave the pain of a disappointing season behind.  If Miami topples Wake in the next game, several tickets should loosen up.  FWIW, Miami has very few fans here and they would likely not come with a win over Wake.

Stay tuned for more updates here and I will be tweeting live from Blue Devil Nation during the Duke games and we will of course bring you all the happenings behind the scenes.

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Ballsy ACC Tournament Predictions – Rob Murray of Big Duke Balls

Thursday, March 11th, 2010

One thing I hate to do on this site is make predictions. Yet that has never stopped me from doing them. God bless America.So here I am again, ready to give you my thoughts on some upcoming game/tournament.

Of course I could sit here and tell you all about each team in detail, explain to you why so-and-so will suddenly get hot, why that guy will lose his jumper, how that coach will screw that up and guarantee you some mind blowing upset…but I’m not.

Pointless.

I’m an old-school gambler and one thing us old-timers love is history. So I’m going to look in the past to tell you the future. And yes, I’m going to deliver the same line I do every time I do this…these “predictions” should be completely ignored.

So What do we know about the ACC Tournament?

We know that Duke and North Carolina have won it a lot (17 times each), but that doesn’t really help us. They’re two original league members, of course they’re going to have a stack of conference titles.

Hell, if you just based it on team’s history, then you would have to argue that South Carolina, who won the ACC crown back in 1971, has a better shot than Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Virginia Tech.Of course this would be difficult since the Cocks play in the SEC (traitors!).

While I can certainly judge teams by their recent performances, the fact is, I believe in seeding and the history seeding results can tell us. And when I say history, I mean recent history. Sorry, I don’t care about who won what in 1962. They didn’t even let blacks in the league then. Nothing counts.

I am going to look back at the tournament dating back to 1985. This was the year the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams, thus losing in the tournament no longer meant the end of the season (excluding the N.I.T.).

SO WHAT DO THE NUMBERS TELL ME?

- It’s good to be No 1. The top seed has made it to the finals in 16 of the last 25 tournaments, although, they’ve only won half of those games. Recently, the No 1 seed has won three-straight (2006-2008).

- Being the No 2 used to mean something. Over an 18-year period, the No 2 seed made it to the finals half of the time. Of those nine, the No 2 seed won seven championships.

- Lately though, the No 2 seed has been a curse. Since 2003, no No 2 seed has advanced to the ACC finals. The two seed is only 3-7 in the tournament since 2003, losing in the quarterfinals four times.

- Of course, the No 2 seed is not the norm, as the higher seeds tend to dominate in the finals. In fact, the high seed in the championship game has won seven out of the last eight (No 6 Maryland over No 1 Duke in 2004 was the lone upset).

- In the past though, upsets in the finals were more common. In fact, the high seed (prior to 2002) was just 9-8 in the champion game.

- Of course, all because the No 2 seed has been getting into the finals, that doesn’t mean that any of the little guy’s are stepping up to shock the league. In fact, the title game has featured No 4 seeds or higher in all title games, except seven. That’s 50 teams and only seven have been a five seed or lower.

- The most common title game match up has been a #3 seed vs. a #1 seed (seven times, compared to six #2 vs. #1).

- Of course, No 3 seeds may get to the title game, but that doesn’t mean they do much once they get there. In fact, the No 3 has lost in five of the last six title games they appeared in.

- One last note on title games. Of the 25 winners since 1985, 22 were three seeds or higher. The three times it didn’t happen? Each time the winning team was a No 6 seed (Maryland in 2004, Georgia Tech in 1993 and N.C. State in 1987). That basically means if you’re a 4/5 seed or seeds #7-12, you’re not winning this baby.

- Now I’ve spent a lot of time on the top seeds, but what about the bottom feeders? Since 2005, the ACC has had 12 seeds (technically in 2005 there were 11, followed by 12 in 2006) and they’re not terrible. In fact, Seeds #9-12 are 13-19 in the tournament overall since 2005.

- In round one, the bottom seeds are actually better. Seeds #9-12 are 10-9 since 2005 in the first round. The No 12 seed is an impressive 3-1 in round one.

- Of course after round one, the lower seeds usually fall by the wayside. They’re 10-9 in round one, but only 3-10 after that. Only three have advanced past the quarterfinals.

Okay, I’ve hit on the top seeds and I’ve walked you through the lower seeds, but I’ve focused mostly on the title game and the first-round games. Everyone knows all the action in a Oreo is in the middle, so what happens in the middle rounds?

- First, if you’re the top seed, you can punch your ticket to the semis. Over the last 25 years, only two No 1 seeds have lost in the quarterfinals. The last time it happened was in 1997, when Duke lost to N.C. State. Prior to that, it was N.C. State losing to Maryland in 1989.

- Like I said before, the No 12 seed and No 11 seeds have found some round one success, but joy joy, that’s about it for bragging rights. These two are just 1-5 in the semis, with Wake Forest (in 2006) being the only #12 seed to advance to the semis.

- In fact, the quarterfinals have been pretty damn uneventful over the years. Since 1998, three of the top four seeds have advanced to the semis 10 times in 12 years (twice all four top seeds made it), but never has only just one made it. What I’m saying is, if you’re a betting man, take the top seed in all games and you’ll win three of four…most likely.

- Heading into the semifinals, there’s only one important stat to know. It’s splitsville, baby. In the ACC semis, one higher seed and one lower seed has won the past eight years. The last time both higher seeds advanced to the finals was in 2001 (#2 Duke & #1 North Carolina). For the record, the higher seed winner and lower seed winner has split the past eight seasons. The highest of the seeds has gone 4-4, the lowest seed in the semis has gone 4-4.

Okay, I’ve talked all about seeds, but what about teams. There’s got to be some helpful info, right?

- First, what about Duke as the top seed? At one point, it used to be a bad thing. In fact, prior to 1998, Duke had earned the top seed five times (since 1985), but only managed to win the conference tournament once. Now though, things have changed. Duke has won the title as the top seed four times in five tries since 1998.

- Maryland has the No 2 spot, but there isn’t too much history to look at. They’re not typically this high. What I can tell you is this, when the expectations are high, the Terps fall down. Since 2001, Maryland is a decent 5-2 as the lower seed (winning the ACC title in 2004), but when they are the higher seed, they are just 3-6.

- Florida State has never been a No 3 seed. They were a No 4 seed last season and advanced to the title game. Overall, they have won their first tournament game the last three years. Prior to that, they had lost three straight.

- Virginia Tech took a couple years getting use to the ACC, but for three straight seasons, they have won the first and lost their second. The last two seasons, they won as the higher seed, but lost as the lower seed. Overall, they are 3-1 as the higher seed.

- Poor Wake Forest, the ACC tournament has been unkind when they’re a good team. Since 2004, the Demon Deacons are 0-4 as the higher seed.

- Clemson has lost six of their last seven in the first round, including their last three. The one year they didn’t have to play in the opening round, they actually won two games and made it to the finals.This year, they’re playing in round one.

- Georgia Tech is hard to predict. They’re 6-9 since 2001. They’ve won in round one the past two season and have a habit of losing to Duke. The Blue Devils have eliminated Ga Tech three times over the last six years.

- Since joining the ACC, Boston College has never lost in their first game in the ACC Tournament. They’re 4-0. The past two seasons, they were the lower seed in the first round.

- For Virginia, I have an interesting stat. Since 1995, the Cavaliers are 3-4 in the ACC Tournament with Sean Singletary on the team, winning at least one game in three of his four seasons. Without him though, Virginia is 0-13.

- What about North Carolina? There’s not a lot to go on. They’ve been a top seed so often, it hurts. Well how’s this, between 2002-2004, Carolina was the lower seed and they only went 1-3.

- North Carolina State has been known to be sneaky. They’ve reached the finals three times in the last eight years. Only Duke and North Carolina have more appearances in that time. Over the last nine years, they’ve won their first game six times. What I’m saying is, beware of the Wolfpack.

- The Miami Hurricanes are a surprising 3-1 in opening games in the ACC tournament. Yes, I’m actually surprised by this stat. I can barely remember the last time I actually watched a Miami win.

So knowing all those numbers, what have I learned and what will I predict? Let’s get started.

ROUND ONE:

We learned that the lower seed has a 50/50 shot, so they’ll probably win two of these four games. We also learned that the No 12 seed knows how to win in round one. We know Boston College has a 4-game round one winning streak going, while Wake has a four-game slide as favorites. Miami has pulled off some upsets, State’s been known to go on a run, but Clemson hasn’t and Carolina never will. I’m still trying to figure out Ga Tech, but Virginia I know…sorry, no Singletary.

No 8 BOSTON COLLEGE OVER No 9 VIRGINIA
The Cavaliers have dropped nine-straight, while BC has pulled out three wins in their last five, one of which was against Virginia.

No 12 MIAMI OVER No 5 WAKE FOREST
The Canes struggle to stop the three. Luckily for them, Wake Forest couldn’t hit a three if you spotted them two.

#7 GEORGIA TECH OVER #10 NORTH CAROLINA
I know, the Yellow Jackets have struggled lately, losing six of eight. Yet, they’ve still beaten Carolina twice this season. Besides, the Tar Heels gave up on this season a long time ago.

No 11 NORTH CAROLINA STATE OVER #6 CLEMSON
Don’t look now, but State has won three of four. Of course Clemson has more to play for, which usually means disaster for the Tigers. Sorry, no No 6 seed shocker this season.

QUARTERFINALS

We know the lower seeds like to crash the party, but they almost never make it to the V.I.P. room. While teams like Boston College and Miami know how to escape the first round, two games in a row is asking too much. Of course both NC State and Georgia Tech could make a splash, but since the Wolfpack are the 11th seed, we know this is as far as they go because the 11th seed never goes to the semis. The fact is, The big boys are in town and three of four will win those quarterfinals. This leaves one team to lose and only one has a known track record of screwing things up when the expectations are high.

#1 DUKE OVER #8 BOSTON COLLEGE
The Blue Devils have had a six-day rest heading into the noon game against Boston College. Sorry, Eagles.

#4 VIRGINIA TECH OVER #12 MIAMI
Do you think Delaney is a little tired of hearing about Scheyer and Vasquez? It’s a Hokie with a chip on his shoulder, watch out!

#7 GEORGIA TECH OVER #2 MARYLAND
The Terps have had a full week of everyone telling them how great they are. They got the ACC player of the year and the coach of the year. Tech has spent the whole week being told how bad they are, about how they underachieved, all while their coach plays the silent treatment. This one should be Maryland, right? Wrong. Something just doesn’t smell right here.

#3 FLORIDA STATE OVER #11 NORTH CAROLINA STATE
The Seminoles know how to move along (they were in the ACC finals last year), while the Wolfpack are just grateful to be playing one more game.

SEMIFINALS

The semis are a bit harder to figure out. What we do know is, one higher seed is advancing, the other one isn’t. But which one? In this case, go with the team with a loooong track record.

#1 DUKE OVER #4 VIRGINIA TECH
With Maryland gone, Duke should cruise to the championship, but reality says, this will be their toughest remaining challenge. One day, the Hokies will reach the finals, but it won’t be against the No 4 team in the nation fighting for a No 1 seed in the NCAA.

#7 GEORGIA TECH OVER #3 FLORIDA STATE
The Noles are the higher seed and have beaten the Yellow Jackets twice this season, but we’re going to roll the dice here and go with the theory of, unless you’re a superior team, it’s tough to beat a decent team three times in one season.

TITLE GAME

We’ve already pointed it out, the lower seeds just don’t win these. The higher seed has won five straight and the number one seed has won three of four in this tournament.

#1 DUKE OVER #7 GEORGIA TECH
By this point, Ga Tech has saved their season and are no longer sitting on the bubble. They’re in and this isn’t Atlanta. Duke rolls.

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It’s time to put a perfect weekend behind for Duke is now 0-0

Tuesday, March 9th, 2010

Let’s face it, Duke is coming off weekend Nirvana where they pummeled their arch rival North Carolina by a score of 83-50.  I mean, everything went right and all was good throughout the Blue Devil Nation.  The Blue Devils had their way in every way which satisfied thirsty Duke fans.  In short, it was take no prisoners until Kryzyzewski went to a slow down late in the game.

The Blue Devils were consistent through out their dominating win and that was demanded by Krzyzewski in that it was his way of preparing them for what is to come.   Duke knows it must put the fab weekend behind them and that all started in yesterday’s afternoon practice.  It a new start and everybody is 0-0, one loss and you’re done.

There will be no fabulous Cameron Crazies, who by the way were at their best this season in the Carolina game and I covered every game with them just behind me this season.  So, Duke will have to make their own way in predominately neutral environments.

By the time Duke takes to the court in this weeks ACC Tournament, a good amount of the boo birds could be gone.  A stumbling UNC squad must take on Georgia Tech on opening night and the Yellow Jackets are in need of a resume building win.  But Duke is still a marked team and if anyone thinks they wouldn’t covet a rematch with Maryland, you’ve got a bit too much spring fever.

Before Duke can think of Maryland, they will take on the Boston College-Virginia winner and while the Eagles seem the safe pick, the staff is preparing for either team in earnest.  In fact, they have all the teams scouted and covered by long time assistants.

Oddly, every time the ACC Tournament rolls around, good weather accompanies the event.  Over the years, I’ve attended many and it always seems to be in nearing the 70’s.  Okay, back on track …

You can almost pencil Duke into the semi’s where they will likely meet Wake Forest or Virginia Tech and FWIW, I feel Boston College would give Duke the most trouble, but looking ahead is dangerous in a tournament full of hungry teams in need of again, resume building wins.

Duke will likely have to win out to get a number one seed, but there are scenarios where if other mighties stumble, they could get it falling just short in the final should they reach that game.

A lot has been made of how easy it is to get reasonable ticket prices to this years tournament and that is due to two things.  First off the economy is still not flourishing and when North Carolina stumbles, a lot of faithful fans leave, but if Duke faces Maryland in the finals it could salvage the event.  It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Well, I’m headed over to Cameron to interview selected Duke players and I will indeed be at the tournament and look forward to offering a few thoughts as the event goes on.  Check out my web site Blue Devil Nation later today and we’ll have audio interviews posted with players and be sure to check out Raycom Sports Blogs as the tournament progresses.

Let the games begin.

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Duke Takes Care of Carolina

Sunday, March 7th, 2010

-Rob Murray of Big Duke Balls.

Wow. Wow. Wow. It’s the only word I  can come up with. I alm0st had pity on the Tar Heel players…almost.

The Duke Blue Devils wrapped up a perfect season (17-0) in Cameron Indoor Stadium, by crushing North Carolina, 82-50. It was the greatest butt-kicking of Carolina in my lifetime and it ended a very frustrating and embarrassing 4-game losing streak to UNC at home.

Everything worked for Duke tonight, like it has all season long at home. Nothing worked for Carolina, just like everywhere all season long. The fact is, Carolina should be embarrassed. Yes, I know they have injury issues, but there is still plenty of talent on that floor wearing baby blue. Yet, everyone knew at the first TV timeout this game was…O.V.E.R. Hell, eight minutes in and Duke had a 20-point lead.

SO WHAT DID I SEE?

KYLE LOOKING LIKE A FIRST-TEAM ALL ACC PLAYER
After struggling for most of the season, Kyle Singler is now playing his best ball and at the right time too. Tonight, he scored 25 easily and i say easily because he sort of put on the breaks in the second half, helping to get other teammates involved. The biggest improvement has come from the three-point line. Since February 4th, he’s hit 30-63 (48%) from three. There are two reasons for the improvement.

First, Coach K did a better job of trying to free up Singler with back screens and double screens. Also, early in the season, Singler was running off high screens into the paint, looking for drives or mid-range shots. The change simply moved his “spot” to behind the three line.

Second, Singler has done a better job of driving the lane from the three line. Defenders are now leaning off him, worried about his drive, thus opening up the shot from deep.

THANK YOU JON SCHEYER
While some think I was premature to hand Vasquez the ACC Player of the Year award, that doesn’t mean I don’t appreciate how important Scheyer has been to this team. Tonight, he had a solid game, scoring 20 (although on 4-14 shooting), dishing out seven assists and turning the ball over zero times (that will help the conference leading assist-to-turnover ratio).

THANK YOU BRIAN ZOUBEK
Whatever the reason is (he’s healthy, he’s finally starting to understand, whatever), Brian is a force in the middle right now. He scored eight and grabbed 13 boards tonight, which is more amazing when you consider he did nothing after the 10-minute mark in the second half. He only played 20 freaking minutes. Carolina as a team, only out-rebounded Zoubek 24-13.

While you might not be overwhelmed by his scoring, it’s about production value. He scored eight on 4-4 shooting. Since becoming a starter in the first Maryland game, he’s 22-31 from the floor. That’s 71%. The last time I checked, that’s a pretty good shooting percentage.

The best had to be in the second half, with Zeller on his back, he dribbled right, swung left and threw up a hook from the side. Swoosh. Jesus, we’ve all been waiting four years for this guy to create his own shot.

THANK YOU LANCE THOMAS
While Lance Thomas didn’t have a big night, two points, six boards, fouling out way too early, I’m not about to forget to mention him in his last night in Cameron. On the defensive side, it is his abilities that allow Duke to do what it does.

The Devils are all about switching. You want to run a screen? Fine, we’ll just switch off. One reason Duke can do this is because everyone is 6′4 or bigger. However, it helps to have a player like Lance, who’s long and tall and athletic enough to switch from a center to a forward and even to a guard.

NOLAN SMITH, THE GLUE
I know, I know, Lance Thomas is technically the glue guy. It’s supposed to be a supporting player, not a star, who does the little stuff, but I’m changing the definition at least for now. While Singler and Scheyer have had their up’s and down’s this season, Nolan just keeps doing his thing…scoring (20 tonight), passing (5 assists) and not turning the ball over (none tonight). This is an overlooked stat for Smith. He’s turned it over only once or less in nine of his last 13 games.

DAWKINS IS FEELING IT
We’re not going to get too excited. We’re not about to rush out and print up some “Dawkins, All-American” bumper stickers, but the kid is starting to get some of his confidence back. He’s hit two baskets in three straight games (6-10 overall).

PLUMLEE’S STILL CAN’T PLAY DEFENSE
It wasn’t all golden sh**s tonight. The Plumlee’s again struggled on the defensive end, particularly in the simple task of getting back in transition.

Here’s the problem. Often when Duke misses a shot and they failed to get the rebound, both Mason and Miles have a habit of standing around, looking for a sneaky steal. Of course meanwhile, the person they’re suppose to be guarding is racing down the court.

Now Mason has been known to get one of these steals every other game, but it’s not worth it. Get back! If North Carolina wants to find anything positive tonight, both Henson and Zeller actually looked good when they faced the two Plumlee brothers.

FAVORITE STAT OF THE NIGHT: Duke’s FT shooting, 22-23. Carolina, who actually took more, was just 17-26.

SECOND FAVORITE STAT OF THE NIGHT: Duke could have scored nothing in the second half and still won by three.

FAVORITE TWITTER OF THE NIGHT: Quincy Miller, a Duke target for next year (and one of the best high school players in the nation), was in Louisville tonight, but he was watching the Duke game, twice posting about the Duke/UNC game.

LOSER AWARD FOR THE EVENING:
John Henson. The guy gets a dunk and actually talks trash to Miles Plumlee. Carolina was down by 29 at the time. And you wonder why they’re on the NIT Bubble.

SAY HUH?
Dick Vitale (I’m a big fan, mostly because I grew up in Sarasota as a teenager and young adult) had plenty to say tonight about North Carolina’s troubles. Yet the one person he laid zero blame on was Coach Roy Williams.

Sorry, Dick…but this team gave up long before the injury bug took a big bite. That’s the coaches fault. That’s Roy’s fault. He also never, ever made an adjustment from his “style.” What makes Coach K so great is his ability to adjust to the line up he has. He’s got Jay Williams, no problem, Duke is a dribble-drive offense. No true point guard, again no problem, we’ll become a motion team.

That’s it, folks. It’s on to Greensboro. Duke has to be considered the heavy favorite. Sure they don’t play as well on the road, but that can be said about all the ACC teams. Hell, Maryland was only up one with 38 seconds to go at Virginia, who’s lost like 35 in a row (give or take a few loses).

The fact is, Duke is a superior neutral court team. They’re 3-0 this season, with two of those wins coming against teams ranked in the top-15 at the time. Duke has also proven itself in this tournament, winning it eight out of the last 11 times.

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Duke Lets It Slip Away

Thursday, March 4th, 2010

Duke blew it. It’s as simple as that. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not about to take anything away from Maryland, but the Blue Devils, and in particularly Jon Scheyer, threw this one away at the end (more on that in a minute).

In the end, the Blue Devils will get some love from me. They walked into a Maryland Monsoon tonight and went toe-to-toe with a solid team (trust me, we refused all season to sell Maryland short). This was the biggest game in over seven years at Maryland. It was senior night. On top of that, the Terps rolled out of the gate, shooting 60%. The fans were rocking the yellow, emotions were blowing the roof off, everything said blowout in the making, but…

Duke didn’t bend. They didn’t break. They rallied and made a game of it. In the end, Duke made the mistakes, Maryland didn’t. Let’s not forget, these two exact teams played three weeks ago in Durham and the Terps walked away 21-point losers.

SO WHAT DID I SEE?

SCHEYER FUMBLES AWAY THE ACC POY
Wow, talk about a rough ending for the man who is reason number one for Duke’s success this year. Just look at the last two minutes. Jon hits a two-pointer that ties it at 69-69. After Jordan Williams gets a put back, giving Maryland the lead, Scheyer brings the ball down and before anyone can get back with him, he fires up a three with Vasquez in his face. Missed badly.

Vasquez then takes it back down and lays up a huge two, giving Maryland the lead. Then Scheyer follows that up by driving way too deep into the trees, throwing up an awful shot. He misses, Maryland sinks two free throws. Down six, Scheyer again drives deep into the lane, gets stuck and throws it away/missed a bad shot…who cares, really.

It was such a shame too, because after a rough start, Scheyer was playing great. In fact, he was out-playing Vasquez. Yet those two final minutes are going to stick in my head for a while only because it’s exactly what I was talking about last week:

Scheyer’s problem hasn’t been tired legs, the issue is simple, he’s taking bad shots inside the paint. Too often Scheyer has driven the ball way too deep inside, gotten caught among the trees and thrown up a ton of bad shots/lay ups. That’s it. Instead of shooting smart like a senior, he’s shooting dumb like a sophomore.

Tonight, in the final two minutes, he played like a freshman.

ZOUBEK DIDN’T GRAB THE ONE REBOUND HE NEEDED
Again, lots of props for Zoubek tonight. The man dislocates his finger, comes back and owns the glass. He finished with 13 boards and you can’t help but be impressed with those numbers, yet…

He failed to grab the one rebound the team needed. With the game tied with a 1:44 on the clock, Mosley missed a jumper. Zoubek was in great position, but the freshman, Williams, took it away from him and put it back for a deuce.

However, it wasn’t just that final rebound. After dominating in the paint in the first 10-12 minutes of the second half, Zoubek disappears from the stat sheet. In fact, he failed to grab a single rebound in the final eight minutes. I appreciate the finger, but it’s those final eight minutes when we need the Big Z.

STATS TO END ALL STATS
There are plenty of numbers you can point to when tying to figure out how Duke lost this game, but I’m going to give you the one that counts. Duke pulled down an impressive 14 offensive rebounds (11 of which were in the first half).Good, right?

In total, Duke produced a total of six points off those 14 offensive rebounds. Yet, it’s even worse. Three of those points came from Dawkins with 13 seconds on the clock.

Breakdown: 14 offensive rebounds, two made shots, one trip to the free throw line (Smith went 1-2), nine missed shots and two turnovers, both committed by Jon Scheyer (although one was that bullsh*t traveling call).

10:20, TWO BASKETS…ALL FOR NOTHING
You would think the most frustrating part of the game was the beginning when Maryland jumped out to a 33-19 lead, but it wasn’t. I knew Maryland, a good team, was riding high with emotion. I knew we’d probably get back into it. The worse part was in the beginning of the second half.

Duke had shutdown Maryland. They made only two baskets in ten minutes. Yet in the second half, Duke couldn’t hit a shot. They were shutting Maryland down, but Duke couldn’t hit an open look. That was the moment I knew Duke might be in trouble. You have to put these teams way when they’re ice cold, especially on the road.

PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Is there any doubt? While neither Vasquez or Scheyer dominated this game, in the end, Vasquez nailed the most important shot of the year, while Jon Scheyer fumbled his away. It depresses me to say it, but Greivis Vasquez is my ACC player of the Year.

The fact is, the award was Jon’s all season long. But down the stretch, he started making mistakes and got himself into a slump (even while Duke kept winning). Vasquez though, he just got better after a awful start to the season.

MARYLAND FANS REALLY DO SUCK
I love passionate fans and I appreciate Maryland fans’ passion. I really do and I have no problem with opposing fans taunting college players. It’s part of the game, but Maryland fans, could you really be any lamer?

First, the only chants they could come up with all night was, “Fuck Jon Schyer.” and “Fuck Duke.” That’s really the best you can do? My nine-year-old nephew can curse. At least last year the “Scheyer faces” were funny.

Secondly, has Maryland ever beaten Duke and not stormed the court? Seriously, you’re a top-25 team. And Maryland wonders why we don’t see them as rivals, no matter how hard they want to be. Do you ever see Carolina fans storming the court when they beat Duke?

We’ll start treating you like equals when you start acting like you actually belong.

I guess we’ll see you in the ACC Finals.

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Scheyer vs. Vasquez, the winner is…

Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010

With the season nearing an end, talk is turning to the conference awards, particularity the ACC “Player of the Year” award.

The race has come down to two; Duke’s Jon Scheyer and Maryland’s Greivis Vasquez. Of course, according to some, there really is no contest.

Here’s Michael Wilbon in The Chat House:

Barno, Md.: Is Greivis Vasquez your ACC player of the year? You going to be at the Duke-Md. game on Wednesday?

Michael Wilbon: I think he has to be, right. Jon Scheyer of Duke would be the other guy to seriously consider. But Vasquez had 41 in a game on the road (Saturday at Va. Tech) and 25 in a half to lead a rout of Virginia. You NEVER see that kind of scoring in college hoops. Okay, Michael Beasley and Kevin Durant had those kinds of games. But it’s rare in the time since Chris Jackson at LSU to see that kind of scoring

This guy at the Bleacher Report says if Vasquez doesn’t win it, it would be a crime.

Can the ACC deny  his supremacy of any of the following skills? Passing,  is there anyone better in the ACC or even the whole country? The Fast break, is there a better commander on the floor than Vasquez, can anyone see the floor better? Assist, is there a better guard in college basketball at getting  other player involved in the game? Rebounding, at 6’7” he can rebound at a  five per game average, who’s better? Smart, understands the game and his coach loves him for it. Fun to watch, undeniable a great flair on the court! Oh I almost forget, a great scorer, who can at anytime kill you by burning the nets. Can we all agree on that?

Yes, we can agree on all that. Yet does that mean he’s the player of the year in this conference? For most of the season, I had Jon Scheyer penciled in as the POY. However, Scheyer has struggled with his shot lately, while Vasquez has gotten better and better, after a rough start to the season.

I could understand anyone who gives it to Vasquez, but I certainly don’t think it would be a crime to hand it to Scheyer.

In tight situations like these, Big Duke Balls likes to go to the stats. Let’s compare this season’s numbers between Scheyer and Vasquez.

SCORING
Vasquez (19.5), Scheyer (18.8)

FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE
Vasquez (43.7), Scheyer (41.7%)

THOUGHTS: Scheyer led Vasquez in scoring and shooting percentage all season long, until just this week, when Jon’s five-game shooting slump allowed Vasquez to jump ahead. Ironically, while everyone is giving Vasquez weekly awards for his 41-pt effort against Virginia Tech, I can’t help but notice he shot 13-33 from the floor that night. 41 is a nice number, but 20 missed shots? Still, he’s shot the ball well in the ACC this season.

THREE-POINTERS MADE
Scheyer (79), Vasquez (58)

THREE-POINT PERCENTAGE
Scheyer (40.1%), Vasquez (37.9)

FREE THROWS MADE/ATTEMPT
Scheyer (141-198), Vasquez (113-134)

FREE THROW PERCENTAGE
Scheyer (88.7), Vasquez (84.3)

THOUGHTS: Scheyer has the edge in both three-point shooting and free shooting, but both margins are slim and there’s not a lot of bragging room. However, if I had to give props about something, it’s the fact that Scheyer has done a much better job of getting to the charity stripe.

Scheyer has taken 64 more free throws than Vasquez, which is a bit odd considering Vasquez is better at driving into the paint.

REBOUNDS
Vasquez (4.8), Scheyer (3.4)

THOUGHTS: Both are pretty good at getting rebounds, but that’s not surprising since Vasquez is 6′7 and Scheyer is 6′5. Of course Vasquez grabs nearly five per game, which he’s averaged in his entire career.

ASSISTS
Vasquez (6.4), Scheyer (5.4)

ASSIST-TO-TURNOVER
Scheyer (3.1), Vasquez (1.9)

THOUGHTS: Clearly, Vasquez has the edge in assists. In fact, he leads the ACC. Yet, his problem has always been turnovers (more on this below). He is having his best year at 1.9/1, but that’s still well below Scheyer’s ACC leading, 3.1/1.

STEALS
Scheyer (1.6), Vasquez (1.5)

THOUGHTS: Jon’s got the slight lead, but it’s so close, I’ll have to call this category a draw.

SO WHAT DID WE LEARN?
Well, if you want to just stick with the simply numbers; points, rebounds and assists, you have to give the POY to Vasquez. He’s 3-0 in those three categories.

If you believe in digging deeper, then you have to look at the other numbers. Vasquez has a slight advantage in FG percentage, but Scheyer leads in 3-point percentage, FT percentage, FT attempts/made, assists-to-turnover ratio and steals. If those things matter to you, then Scheyer has the slight edge.

One important factor I like to look at is, has this player cost his team wins? This is where Scheyer gets major props. I can’t think of any game where a loss can be pined on Jon.

As for Vasquez, let’s look at the loses:
LOSS TO CINCY: Vasquez shot 5-17, including 0-5 from three.
LOSS TO WISCONSIN: He scored 18, but turned the ball over five times (to two assists).
LOSS TO VILLANOVA: Only 12 points and seven turnovers.
LOSS TO W&M: He scored 26, but need 23 shots, turning the ball over four times.
LOSS TO WAKE: Again, he scored (30 points), but turned it over six times.
LOSS TO CLEMSON: He scored only 11, turning it over a stunning nine times.
LOSS TO DUKE: Not too bad, 17 points, four assists, three turnovers. Of course 15 of his 17 points came in the second half with Duke up 20.

I’m certainly not going to blame those loses on Vasquez, but as any honest Terp fan will admit, there’s a lot to love about Vasquez, but there’s also plenty to hate too. When he has played bad this year, he’s really stunk up the joint.

This to me is what separates these two players. Of course, you can argue that Vasquez is more important to his team. Maybe you’re right, but take both Scheyer and Vasquez off their respected teams and both teams would suddenly have a lot of problems.

So…having said ALL that, if I had to vote right now, I’d give the ACC “Player of the Year” award to Jon Scheyer. But…and there’s always a “but”…

My decision is really going to come down to Wednesday night’s match up. If Maryland wins, it’s going to be because of the play of Vasquez. If Duke wins, Scheyer is going to be a main reason. The winner of that game will be my POY.

The simple fact is, if Maryland wins, Vasquez’s run down the stretch will propel him over Scheyer. If Duke wins though, that would be a sweep (again) and if Vasquez can’t beat Duke at home, then we have nothing to talk about.

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Duke Wins, Surprises No One

Monday, March 1st, 2010

What happens when you cross a seven-game winning streak with a six-game losing streak? If you saw the Duke/Virginia game, you know the answer.

Duke rolled out early to a 20-4 lead and never looked back, crushing the struggling Cavaliers by 18. Fact is, it should/could/would have been much worse, but Coach K sat his starters with about five minutes left to play. Virginia was able to go on a 13-5 run against Duke’s bench, to make the score look a bit less lopsided.

In reality, Virginia had no shot with star guard, Sylven Landesberg, sitting on the bench with a deep-thigh bruise. The Cavs weren’t going to win with his 17.4ppg (5th in the ACC) stuck on the pine.

SO WHAT DID I SEE?

THREE MINUS ONE = VICTORY
Tonight the Big Three (Singler, Schyer and Smith) were reduced to the Big Two, as Nolan Smith had his worst game of the year (and of course he did it three days after I wrote that he was the most consistent player on the team). Tonight he finished 1-8 from the floor, scoring a season low five points.

Of course it was bound to happen. Everyone has an off night, even Nolan Smith. At the very least, if you’re going to have a bad game, do it against a team riding a six-game slide.

The good news is, it didn’t matter at all. That’s the beauty of having a “Big Three.” One can have an off shooting night, but the others can pick up the slack. Singler and Scheyer both had solid nights. They combined to score 41 on only 24 shots (Vasquez scored 41 against Tech Saturday night, but he needed 33 shots to get it done).

SCHEYER PLAYS LIKE A SENIOR
Thursday night, I wrote about Jon Scheyer’s recent slump. While we expected most “experts” to declare it tired legs, I knew that wasn’t the case. The simple fact was, Scheyer was taking bad shots. The stats don’t lie, folks. If he had tired legs, he wouldn’t be shooting an impressive 44% from downtown (better known as three-point land). The fact was, he was shooting an awful 19% from two-point range because he was taking a ton of bad shots.

He needed to stop getting trapped among the trees and hit some open mid-range jumpers or a runner or two. Obviously he reads this blog (he doesn’t) because he listened.

Tonight, I decided to watch every shot he took. He took 14 total, seven were three pointers, seven were two pointers. Of the seven two-point shots, all but one were drives to the basket. The one that wasn’t was a long range shot he took right in front of the three-point line (which in my books is the worst shot you can take in basketball, but let’s move on).

Of the six “drive” shots, I counted two bad shots and four good shots. Of the two bad shots (one was a wacky lay up he threw up in trouble, the other was a jump shot, but he did it on the run with the defender right in his face), he made the former and missed the latter. I can deal with that.

Of the four good shots though (meaning he pulled up in the open spot in the paint), he hit three of four.

That’s what we’re talking about when we’re talking about taking “smart shots.”

PAGING MR. ZOUBEK
After having a stunning two-week run, Brian Zoubek disappeared tonight, picking up some fouls and never finding a groove tonight. He finished with four boards, no offensive and he took zero shots. The fact was, Coach Bennett’s game plan was to shut down Zoubek and Duke’s offensive board production. You can say it worked. Duke only grabbed two offensive boards. That’s one way to look at it. You can also say it left a lot of open paint because Duke’s guards were able to find some open looks at the mid-range spots. You can make your own decisions, this isn’t Russia.

Of course, I’ve always argued, it’s easy for Duke to be a good offensive rebounding team, simply because they’re really not a good shooting team, i.e. plenty of offensive rebound opportunities.

LOVIN’ THE TREY
Did you notice how much the Duke team celebrates when Andre Dawkins hits a three? Obviously he’s playing through a tough situation right now because of the death of his sister, so you have to believe his teammates are really pulling for him. Of course they also know how important he is. If he plays, he’s going to get open looks and if he can hit ‘em, it can only make this team better. It also makes my wife happy because then I’ll stop yelling at cats. Everyone wins.

ONE PLUMEE, TWO PLUMLEE
Overall, not a bad game by the brothers. It’s clear they’re coming off the bench for the remainder of the season and that’s a good thing. I really (am I saying “really” a lot tonight?) believe once a player knows his role and knows his minutes, it’s easier for them to just go out and play their game.

Tonight the dynamic duo scored nine and grabbed nine boards. For Miles, both of his scoring opportunities (one made basket, the other time he was fouled), came from high-low passes from his brother. His other two shots were both misses.

The problem the brothers continue to have, as well as freshman Dawkins (and Kelly for that matter) is on the defensive end. They just don’t have to know-how like Zoubek and Thomas to play smart, effective defense.

The one particular thing I saw tonight with Mason and Miles was their work on the high-screens. When the opponent’s big man goes up top to set a screen for the point guard, Duke’s big men are suppose to ride with the ball handler, force him out away from the basket and allowing the guard/defender to get back in front of the ball handler. The trick is knowing when to release from the ball and jump back onto your big man, who should be sliding back down towards the basket.

Both Plumlee’s struggled tonight getting back. Again, it’s not an athletic problem, they’re both more athletic than Zoubek and he’s figured it out. The problem is they tend to stay on the guard, both stopping our guard from getting back into position and of course leaving their man open underneath.

BACKDOOR JOHNSON
We saw a rare Steve Johnson sighting tonight, coming in late for some garbage time. And what’s the kid do (he’s not really a kid, I think he’s like in his late 30’s, give or take a few years)? he runs a perfect back door, Dawkins drives and finds him for an easy lay up.

It was Steve’s fifth point of the season and his first made basket of the year. That may not impress you, but you know what, it’s one more basket than I’ll ever make in a Duke uniform.

WINNING IT WITH DEFENSE
The one thing about this Duke team, they’re not going to simply out score you. In fact, during this current 8-game winning streak, Duke has failed to score 70 in half of those games. They’ve hit 80+ only twice during the eight-game span.

On the flip side, only Virginia Tech was able to break 70 points in a game against Duke.

NO 1 SEED
It’s all the talk now, thanks to Robbie Hummel’s injury and Purdue’s loss at home to Michigan State. The fact is, both teams have four loses now and if you added up the other important numbers (RPI, SOS, Wins against top-50, top-100), Duke sweeps Purdue. In fact, Duke’s nine wins against the top-50, leads the NCAA. If Duke beats Maryland Wednesday, the No 1 seed should be theirs.

DEEP THOUGHTS BY B.D.B.
Over the past couple weeks, the television announcers keep telling us that Coach K “tweaked” the offense to help Singler get better shots and it’s worked because Singler’s numbers are all up. Yet, the funny part is, they never tells us what exactly Coach K changed. Do you think they really (there’s that word again) don’t know?

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Jon Scheyer = Tired Legs?

Friday, February 26th, 2010

After another rough shooting night (5-16 from the floor) against Tulas, everyone is starting to ask…is Jon Scheyer, after playing nearly 37 minutes per game, starting to get tired?

It’s a fair question, especially when you look at his shooting percentage over his last five games.

Overall, he’s just 25-82 from the floor (that’s 30% for those of you without a calculator). That’s unacceptable and the fact is, an un-biased person (that’s not me) would probably have to move Maryland’s Javier Grievis ahead of Scheyer for ACC player of the year honors (although next week’s game between Maryland & Duke will probably decide that).

So is he tiring out? Are those legs starting to give out after 37+ minutes per game? I’m going to go out on a limb and say, NO. Don’t sweat me, I got the stats to prove it.

When the legs go, the jumper is the first to go with it. For Scheyer, jumper means three’s. Yet, that hasn’t really been that much of a problem.

Over the last five games, he’s shooting 17-39 from the three-point range. That’s a solid 44%. The problem Jon’s having is inside the arc…from two-point land, he’s only 8-43. That’s a horrid 19% and let’s just be honest, that sucks.

Scheyer’s problem hasn’t been tired legs, the issue is simple, he’s taking bad shots inside the paint. Too often Scheyer has driven the ball way too deep inside, gotten caught among the trees and thrown up a ton of bad shots/lay ups. That’s it. Instead of shooting smart like a senior, he’s shooting dumb like a sophomore.

Now early in the season, Scheyer was able to get a lot of fouls called his way, but for whatever reason, those calls have dried up.

In fact, he has failed to take more than five free throws in seven of his last 13 games. In the ten games prior to that, he took 6+ free throw attempts in eight of ten games. Against Tulsa, he took only two free throws. For a guy who hits nearly 90% of his free throws, this is also unacceptable.

Now, despite the shooting issues, Scheyer is still playing solid ball. He’s getting his teammates involved, he’s not turning the ball over much (he still leads the ACC in assist-to-turnover ratio) and his D is getting it done.

However, if Scheyer wants to break this mini-slump, he will need to start shooting smarter. Our suggestion, do what Nolan Smith does. Pull up. Scheyer is usually bigger than his defender, so pull up at the free throw line and drain a mid-range shot.

There’s no better way to cure a shooting slump.

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Blue Devils Miss the Tar Heels

Sunday, February 21st, 2010

We may hate them, but we need them…Carolina that is. The Yankees need the Red Sox. Connors wouldn’t be Connors without McEnroe. Hell, who’s Tom without Jerry. You may hate your rivals, but lord knows, its just not the same when they’re not up to par.

Sure it’s fun to see the Tar Heels stuck in last place, yes last place, but we’re going to face them again in two weeks and that game will be meaningless. Sure I like beating UNC, but it just feels better when it’s the two heavyweights fighting for the title.

Of course, we’ve been through this before recently. The decade began with Carolina struggling through the Matt Doherty era. Sure Maryland stepped up to the plate. We won a title, they won a title and the two teams played in some of the most memorable games ever.

But Maryland is not North Carolina, never will be, no matter how hard they want to be. So I can’t help but look ahead now, even before the season begins, to see if North Carolina will claw their way back at the top.

Before we look ahead though, we have to see what’s gone wrong now.

Despite losing four players to the NBA, North Carolina was ranked in the top five in almost all pre-season polls and was picked by most local writers to finish tied with Duke for first in the ACC. Of course after some early wins over Michigan State and Ohio State, the ranking looked about right.

Yet, that was then and this is now. Now is a team barely above .500. They’ve not only lost 10 of 13 ACC games, they’ve barely been competitive in about half those games. So what’s been the problem?

The obvious answer is the guard play. Despite having a solid front court combo of Thompson & Davis, the guards have struggled. They’ve been inconsistent on offense, miserable at long-range shooting and at times their defense has been down-right embarrassing. Are they just that bad? No, not really (those are seven McDonald’s All-Americans we’re talking about). They’re just inexperienced.

It’s easy to just stare at the name on the front of the jerseys and forget this is a team full of underclassmen. Their basic 11-man rotation consist of three sophomores and five freshman.

Over the years we’ve seen such great things from freshman like Oden, Durant, Rose and now Walls, it’s understandable that we forget most incoming freshman make little to no impact their first year.

How many teams would win a ton of games with a eight underclassmen, bad point guard play, mixed in with a pile of injuries to key players? Not many.

SO WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR OUR RIVALS?

Obviously, if you’ve been paying attention, you’re well aware that Coach Williams has another solid recruitment class coming in, led by ESPN’S No 1 high school player, Harrison Barnes. They also have PG Kendall Marshall (rated #6 PG) and shooting guard Reggie Bullock (rated #3 SG) also coming in.

While there is little doubt Harrison Barnes won’t make an immediate impact (you don’t get the No 1 rating for nothing), time will tell if either Marshall or Bullock will make an immediate impact. According to Scout.com, Marshall is an excellent passer, but needs to work on his outside shot. Bullock on the other hand is an ace on the outside, but doesn’t have the mid-range shot or strength to scare anyone inside.

Of course the big question mark for next year’s team is Ed Davis. Like we speculated last week, he surprised everyone staying for his sophomore year, but no one foresaw him coming back after this season. Yet, he’s now out for the season and maybe the injury is a blessing. While Davis is still projected to be a lottery pick, he sure hasn’t impressed me that much this season (luckily for him, I’m not the one he needs to impress). One more year as the main man underneath might do him some good. Of course, if you’re a lottery pick already, one more year could just make it worse. Right, Josh McRoberts?

For the remainder of this post, we’re going to assume Ed Davis says goodbye to college and hello to the NBA.

SO WHAT DOES THAT LEAVE OUR RIVALS?

That leaves us with a Carolina team stacked with guards/wing players, but thin in the middle.

Inside, Zeller will get the start along with Jon Henson. The only backups will be the Wear brothers. Zeller is a pretty good athlete for a seven-footer, but the problem has always been his health. He’s missed more games than he’s played.

At power forward, Henson is oozing with talent (remember his block party against Duke this season), but early on he was just plain bad. While he certainly looks a lot better of late, he’s going to need to hit the weigh room if he’s going to start playing 25+ per game in the ACC.

In the back court/small forward spot, Coach Williams has some big decisions to make. He has a ton of players for only three spots. Obviously Harrison Barnes will take over at small forward (although I can’t really use the word “small” since he’s really 6′8). That leaves the guard spots, which if you can believe it or not, will most likely be filled with the same two guards starting this season; Larry Drew & Will Graves.

You might find this shocking, considering the struggles the Tar Heels have had this season. Yet in reality, the same weaknesses Drew has, Marshall has. The same weaknesses Graves has, Bullock has. Fact is, you have to assume both Drew (a junior) and Graves (a senior) will get better.

If I’m right, then look for Marshall to be the main backup at point. If he can surprise us all and show that he can indeed hit an outside shot, then he could find himself the starter later in the season. I don’t want to offend Larry Drew, but Marshall has so much more potential.

Anyhow, while Strickland has been the backup point guard this season, he was a shooting guard in high school. Look for him to become just “a guard” off the bench. Bullock should also get plenty of minutes off the bench as a long range bomber. At 6′6, he could easily backup Barnes at small forward. If anyone gets left out, right now it looks like Leslie McDonald.

For now…
CAROLINA STARTERS:(PG) Drew, (SG) Graves, (SF) Barnes, (PF) Henson, (C) Zeller
CAROLINA BENCH: (PG) Marshall, (SG) Strickland, (G/F) Bullock, (SG) McDonald, (F) T. Wear, (F) D. Wear

So what kind of team are we looking at. First, we’re looking at a better team. Barnes alone will make any team in college better. He’s a one-and-done and he easily could be Carolina’s best player. While I’m hesitant on the impact the other two freshman will make, you have to assume the sophomores will all make good strides in the off-season. Coach Williams loves to run and this team can, as long as they can eliminate the turnovers. The question that will dog them (which is the same question that dogs all Roy Williams’ teams) is, can they play defense?

So would I pick them to win the ACC? No, but they should be in the thick of things. Now if Ed Davis returns, then I would probably consider Carolina one of the favorites to win the ACC and compete for the National Title.

Of course, don’t take my word for it…in fact, you shouldn’t take my word for it. So we went looking for another opinion. Who better to ask than Mr Tar Heel himself…Mr. Tar Heel.

He was kind enough to give us his thoughts on the current Tar Heels and the future Tar Heels. Please check them out.

No 1 - Most “experts” point to the point guard position as reason number one for Carolina’s struggles this season. Do you think that’s accurate and why (nor why not)?
It’s hard to argue with the notion that the point guard play is our biggest issue this year. In college ball it always seems that having great guard play is the key to success. I would agree that  it is the biggest issue but certainly not the only one. Let’s assume that we had Ty Lawson one more year….would we be a top ten team this year? Maybe…but the turnovers by the other guys, the missed free throws, the mental lapses might still be present.
No 2 - Next season, both point guard Larry Drew (junior) and Dexter Strickland (sophomore) will be back, yet Carolina is also bringing in another five-star point guard in Kendall Marshall. Who starts, who’s No 1 off the bench and who’s the odd man out?

I think my take is that judging freshmen is very difficult. In most cases I think the experienced junior point guard will win out over the inexperienced freshman unless the freshman is really a superior talent( ie, a John Wall type of guy ). Are there any freshman point guards out there playing more this year than upperclassmen? I haven’t checked but would doubt there are many.  As long as Drew improves over the summer I think he plays next year…followed by Strickland and then Marshall. Unless Marshall is a real stud…if so, then Marshall moves up a spot and Strickland plays SG.
No 3 – Although we’re not sold on Ed Davis going pro, let’s pretend he does head to the NBA for now? Without him, what kind of realistic expectations does a die-hard Carolina fan have?
I think that expectations will be high. I don’t like the mix we have this year of maybe too many big guys and then some inexperienced guards.  I like our chances much better next year with an array of guards who can shoot and handle the ball along with a few big guys who can run. I have been pleasantly surprised with the Wear twins and think they will continue to improve over the summer to help out the inside game next year. Next year’s team will be able to run much better and finish  fast breaks. Plus, after facing some adversity this year I think they will come out with something to prove next year.

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