Prior to the season beginning, the media voted for both Duke and North Carolina to win the ACC.
It was the first time in the conference’s history that two teams tied for first place in the preseason poll, a testament to the quality of both programs and the magic of their rivalry.
That means that Wednesday night’s Duke-UNC game at Chapel Hill was supposed to be a potentially conference-deciding type of game, with two of the top ACC teams building their case for the ACC regular season title—that will not be the game that actually takes place, however.
While Duke is currently living up to expectations (they hold a half-game lead over the Maryland Terrapins for first place in the ACC standings), the Tar Heels have struggled.
Okay, “struggle” is an understatement.
The Tar Heels have been awful.
Losing seven of their last nine games, Roy Williams’ team has only managed to beat Virgina Tech at home and N.C. State on the road in conference play thus far. They are currently 2-6 in ACC play, ahead of only Miami and N.C. State, who are tied for last place in the conference.
To put things in perspective, it’s gotten so bad that as Maryland beat the Tar Heels by 21 points on Sunday, the Terrapin fans chanted “NIT” to remind the defeated Heels of their likely postseason tournament destination.
If UNC continues its losing ways, even the NIT isn’t guaranteed.
Despite North Carolina’s unexpected turn for the worse, the upcoming Duke-North Carolina game is still a Duke-North Carolina game, and this rivalry is anything but predictable.
In 2006, a young Tar Heel squad led by Tyler Hansbrough beat J.J. Redick, Shelden Williams, and the conference-leading Blue Devils on their senior night in Cameron.
In 1995, an unranked Blue Devil team with a terrible conference record (worse than the current Tar Heels) took No. 2 North Carolina into double overtime at Cameron before losing by only two points.
When it comes to Duke-North Carolina games, anything can happen.
So, what should we expect to see on Wednesday night as the two biggest names in college basketball square off?
What’s at stake for both teams heading into this prime-time college basketball event?
Duke Blue Devils: Fighting to Regain Their Place at the Top of the ACC
Let’s just get this out of the way—the Blue Devils should win this game.
Most of the major statistics point to them coming away with a victory.
Duke is tied with Maryland as the best three-point shooting team in the conference. North Carolina is the second to last team in the ACC at defending the three.
Duke is currently the third best team in the conference when it comes to taking care of the ball. North Carolina is the worst team in the ACC in that category.
We could go on, but you get the point.
For the Blue Devils, this is a very favorable matchup. They have plenty of size to defend the length of the Tar Heels, and their perimeter players are far superior to North Carolina’s.
But don’t expect Duke to come out complacent, like a team looking ahead to a more important game against Maryland when it comes to conference standings.
No game is more important to the Blue Devils than this one.
Duke has lost six of the last seven games against the Tar Heels—this is their chance to send a message that they are back as the top team in the ACC once again.
With some fantastic recruits coming in next year, including stud point guard Kyrie Irving and sharp-shooting two-guard Seth Curry, to go along with the likely return of Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, the Blue Devils have a real chance to regain the edge in the rivalry.
Wednesday’s game at Chapel Hill is a chance for them to do just that.
Don’t expect this game to be a walk in the park for the Blue Devils, however. They have struggled in true road games this season, with only a win against Clemson at Littlejohn Coliseum as a signature road victory.
They won’t play in a more hostile environment all season (except for maybe Maryland), and this game could do a lot to prove how thick-skinned they can be away from the love and adoration of the Cameron Crazies.
For Duke, winning this game is more about sending a message than building an NCAA tournament resume.
Look for the Blue Devils to come out swinging (or in their case, shooting) on Wednesday.
North Carolina Tar Heels: Keeping Postseason Hopes Alive
I may have joked earlier about the Tar Heels not even making the NIT, but it was only a half joke.
If North Carolina loses to Duke, they will be at 13-11 on the season with games against Georgia Tech (at Tech), Florida State, Wake Forest (at Wake), and Duke (at Duke) remaining.
The way they have played so far this season, none of their remaining conference games are sure things, and several look to be likely losses if they don’t turn things around.
Last season, the lowest seeded NIT teams were Weber State, Tennessee Martin, Jacksonville, and Bowling Green. The worst record of that bunch was Jacksonville at 18-13.
Even Kentucky needed a 22-13 record to earn a No. 4 seed in the NIT last year.
At 13-10, the Tar Heels have a long way to go if they hope to play past the ACC tournament.
Beating Duke would give the Tar Heels a few things they haven’t had in a long while, namely confidence and a signature win.
North Carolina beat Michigan State at home on December 1st—that was the last time they came away with a resume-worthy win.
Since then, the Tar Heels have not only lost consistently, they have lost confidence.
You can see it in their eyes as they play, and you can certainly hear it Williams’ voice during post-game press conferences where phrases such as “I don’t know if I can live through this” are becoming common.
A home victory against the Blue Devils could be exactly what the Tar Heels need to regain their edge and start playing like a team loaded with McDonald’s All-Americans.
Wednesday’s game will be upon us shortly, and in a rivalry as intense as this one, anything can happen.
On paper, North Carolina has more to gain and more to lose in this one, but these games aren’t won on paper and I can guarantee you that every Duke player has had this date memorized since the conference schedule first came out.
No matter the outcome, expect this to be one of the hardest-fought and most entertaining games of the ACC season.
For Duke, a return to the top of the rivalry (and the conference) is at stake.
For North Carolina, a chance for a postseason birth hangs in the balance.
For both teams, more is at stake than a simple win or loss.
This is Duke-North Carolina, after all.
Tags: Duke Basketball, Duke Blue Devils, Duke vs. North Carolina, Duke-North Carolina rivalry, Kyle Singler, Mike Krzyzewski, Nolan Smith, North Carolina Basketball, North Carolina Tar Heels, POTW, Raycom Sports Duke Blog, Roy Williams
Looking forward to Wednesday, and looking forward to next year.
UNC – Duke will see 2 PGs from the same high school. Kyrie Irving will be facing his high school buddy from St. Patrick, Dexter Strickland. Similar to Ellington – Henderson a few years back.
Ryan,
That’s true. Seems like that is happening more and more now that elite players are all going to prep schools instead of local schools. I know that Smith and Lawson both went to Oak Hill. Henderson and Ellington both went to Episcol (I think…or was it Episcopal…whatev), now Strickland and Irving.
Thing is, UNC has had the upper hand in those previous two examples…I think Duke has the upper hand in the latter.