After Georgetown’s convincing domination of the Blue Devils last weekend, most are backing off from talking about Duke as a possible Final Four candidate this season.
It’s easy to understand why.
Their performance against Georgetown was extremely reminiscent of last year’s embarrassing loss to Clemson, and even if that 27-point thrashing isn’t a perfect comparison, Saturday’s game was at the very least a repeat of West Virginia’s man-handling of the Blue Devils in the second round of the 2007-08 NCAA tournament.
There is no way to sugarcoat it—Duke played played poorly against Georgetown, very poorly.
But despite Duke’s awful performance (let’s just be brutally honest about it), don’t be fooled into thinking this is the same Duke team from recent seasons, destined for an early exit from the Big Dance come March.
The ratings experts would disagree with that assumption.
Right now, Duke ranks No. 2 in the Pomeroy rating.
If you’ve never tried to wrap your head around Ken Pomeroy’s rating system, do yourself a favor and try to figure out what’s going on in ABC’s Lost instead—that would be much easier.
Suffice it to say that Pomeroy’s “pythagorean calculation for expected winning percentage” is an extremely reliable snapshot of how well teams are playing at any given moment in a season.
Last year, two of Pomeroy’s top four rated teams, North Carolina and Connecticut, were in the Final Four.
In 2008, all four of his formula’s top four rated teams played in the Final Four.
Four of his top six rated teams made the Final Four in 2007.
To state the obvious, Pomeroy’s formula is ridiculously accurate.
Need more convincing?
Jeff Sagarin’s ratings currently place Duke as the third best team in the nation. His rating system has been heralded for years.
But how is that possible? How can this 17-4 team that lost lopsided games to Georgetown and North Carolina State in recent weeks score so high in some of the most respected ratings systems in sports?
Maybe it’s because the rating systems see things fans often overlook.
Most fans of the game look at the Blue Devils and see the same team from last season minus Gerald Henderson, their best athlete. All they see is a slow, non-athletic group of skilled shooters trying to make threes like it’s the only way to score.
What most do not see is the second most efficient offense (points per 100 possessions) in the nation.
They do not pay attention to the fact that Duke is tied for first in national team free throw percentage.
Fans forget that the Blue Devil’s point guard has the fifth highest assist-to-turnover ratio in the nation because many hesitate to refer to Jon Scheyer as a point guard in the first place, opting instead to dream about Kyrie Irving’s prophesied dominance of ACC basketball.
The point is that, like Scheyer, Duke is deceptively good.
The Blue Devils may not have some of the obvious tell-tale signs of an elite team, but they are an extremely good team that has simply had some missteps in January, a pretty common phenomenon for elite teams as they transition into conference play (just ask this season’s Texas team or, better yet, North Carolina last year).
Scheyer has struggled a bit, Nolan Smith has been up and down, Kyle Singler is fighting through a wrist injury, and Duke’s best two freshmen, Andre Dawkins and Mason Plumlee, have disappeared in the last few games.
As those issues get sorted out, the Blue Devils will begin to look more and more like a team poised for a deep run in March.
January is over, and if the Blue Devils can learn from the lessons their losses have taught them (stop going for traps and steals in the open court), they will be a team that surprises a lot of fans, but not the ratings experts, in March.
Tags: Blue Devils, Duke Basketball, Duke Raycom Sports Blog, Duke vs Georgetown, Jon Scheyer, pomeroy rating, POTW
Here’s the hole in the \Pomeroy knows all\ equation: each of the last three years, his final rankings have included Duke in the top 11. The 2007 team which finished 22-11 and lost to VCU (#66, accordking to Pomeroy), was ranked #11. The 2008 team was #8 after a 28-6 season, and lost to #19 WVU, and the 2009 team was #11 after a 30-7 season and lost to #14 Villanova. So the real questions is, simply, \why do the Pomeroy ratings love Duke no matter how bad the team really is?\
I agree that Duke has great potential and on any given night when all are playing well they could win easily in most games. However I would like to see a more consistent performance out of Kyle Singler understanding that he has an issue with his wrist currently. I think he needs to improve on his shot selection in most games. He seems to make the same poor shot selections over and over, needing to show more patience in most cases. I have seen him make the same offensive charge regularly on the right baseline. The other concern I have is that when teams get on a roll as State and Georgetown, this Duke team does not seem to be able to shut it down defensively. I attribute that to the guard position more so than the front line.
Anyway, Go Duke and I am sure Coach K will work it out.
Justin– that is a good question. I’m a Duke fan, but I’ve noticed the same thing over the last three years. Any semi-sophisticated thoughts on why?
IIRC, the VCU loss was when half the team had the flu. And for #11 to lose to #14 (albeit badly) is hardly an indictment of the ratings system.
I am very surprised at the 3/4 big guys play.They have not added any consistant play this year.In the paint on defense has been their downfall. It’s has to be quite vexing for Coach K to watch this inepit play game after game. I’m sure the coach will fix this. Go Duke. Thanks, Al
Remember that Pomeroy’s final rankings *include* NCAA tournament games. So it’s a little misleading to think of them as predicting NCAA tournament outcomes. To answer Justin’s question, the Pomeroy and other ratings like Duke (17-4) because 11 of their 17 wins have come against top 100 opponents. Only 3 wins have come against opponents rated 250 or worse. Contrast that with Virginia Tech (16-4), which has only 5 top 100 wins and 7 wins against opponents rated 250 or worse (and one more against #239 Deleware).
Justin/Zipper,
I think it comes down to coaching, personally.
Krzyzewski is one of the best coaches in college basketball history, and he is very good at getting the maximum potential out of the players he has.
So when you look at the various ratings systems out there, you are seeing the performance that Krzyzewski is getting out of his team, which I think places them higher than some other teams who have more talent, but maybe don’t perform as efficiently as Duke because of the coaching advantage K brings to the table. Therefore, K’s teams get bumped. These ratings systems aren’t based on opinions, it’s based on performance and efficiency…and K’s coaching helps tremendously in those areas.
FWIW, I don’t actually believe that Duke has underperformed in the post season so much as they have over-performed in the regular season these last few years, leading to a higher seeding in the tournament. If you look at pure talent, there is no way that Duke these last few years should have been a No. 2 seed, but Krzyzewski has maximized his teams during the regular season, earning them those seeds in the process. Obviously, that’s just my opinion.
Bart, I believe you are talking about the loss to WVU. Nelson apparently did have the flu that game. And while we’re on that game, people forget (mostly because of the WVU’s players beating their chests so much in the press conference, taking shots at Duke every chance they got…how much further did they go that year?) that Duke only lost that game by 6 points…not exactly the massacre that many remember.
All in all, you can’t argue with how may of Pomeroys’ (and Sagarin for that matter) top ranked teams (I’m talking about the teams in the top 4-8 tier) end up in the Final Four…it’s a very good predictor for success. Duke hasn’t been this high on those ratings in a while, and while there is still a lot of this season left, if they play at a level that keeps them at that ranking based on offensive and defensive efficiency…they will be tough to beat in the early rounds of the tournament.
Duke has been my team since I was a teenager.I have always supported the devil’s and will always until the day I die.But,I have to put some things out there that are hurting Duke, First of all Brian Zoubek is a huge disappointment all he has done is travel and be sloppy with the ball for 4 years when he graduates he needs to justy try not to remember his horrible career as far as being a Duke basketball player.Lance Thomas is very commitied on the defensive end and he has a lot of energy and if I was the coach he would be a starter for me as well but he cant seem to finish a lay up to save his life.Kyle Singler is a good player but is probally playing out of position he has been awful this year everytrhing he throws up clangs the front of the rim!Nolan Smith has improved tremendously but seems to not be consistent!Jon Scheyer is doing a marvelous job there is not a lot negative to say about him plus I respect him for running the team to the best of his abilities!The Plumlees arfe great and Mason is going to be awesome!!!!Andre Dawkins should play more and needs to drive the ball more!!!Ryan Kelly havent seen to much of his game.To be honest Coach K needs toi recruit atheletic point guards..Guards that can run the team and penetrate to the basket and on the defensive end put constant pressure on the ball!!!He needs to recruit more black players who are academically inclined to go to Duke cause if you currently look at the team there are only 3 black players which means no athelectism!!!Thats not a racist statement just being truthful there are no more Bob Hurleys out there!!! He needs a Jason Williams type of player,Chris Duhon,people who can run the team!Im so glad that Brian Zoubek is graduating then he can travel all he wants good luck to Lance Thomas but he is no NBA player ..Jon Scheyer I feel can make it it in the NBA!!! These are my point of views and again I love Duke and want to see the program regain its swagger!!!Go Duke!
“IIRC, the VCU loss was when half the team had the flu.”
Making things up won’t make Duke’s issues go away. That was nothing more than a rumor started by some Duke fan trying to cover for an embarrassing loss.
Duke is most likely Sweet 16 and done again this year. No matter what Pomeroy’s rating says, Duke IS last year’s team minus Henderson. That will become all too clear come tournament time. They still have no legitimate post presence on offense or defense, three point shooting is spotty, and Singler has been in a slump that started well before his wrist injury….a slump that is affecting more than just his shooting. If he’s not bricking bad shots, he’s turning it over it seems.
This Duke team is a decent team, but not good enough to reach the Final Four. Sweet 16 is about as good as it will get.
All of the Justins have a point. So then the question becomes: why does Duke overperform in the regular season? Prevailing theories seem to include:
1) UNATHLETIC/TIRED. This theory says guys get tired, aka Duke is unathletic and K pushes them too hard in every game instead of building to a crescendo, so by the end of the season they’re prime for some big strong dudes (Michigan St., Villanova, West Virginia, LSU) to come beat the crap out of them. Wonder if that’s reflected at all in Pom efficiecy ratings as seasons go on…
2) REFS. Again, this one has to do with the physical nature of the game, and how the ACC is not as physical as the Big 10 or Big East and is called tighter (especially body fouls). So Duke does well with ACC officiating style but not with others. Another version of this theory is that stuff that might get called in regular season doesn’t get called in NCAAs, so that Duke’s defensive stregnth (positioning) is negated in the playoffs. And yet another wrinkle on this theory is that refs allow more physical play now–especially in the post season–then they did back in Duke’s heyday, but K hasn’t changed the kind of players he recruits or defensive style.
3) GUARDS. This theory says that Duke hasn’t had the quality of guards it takes to succeed in the postseason, especially defensively, but also in terms of the competitive fire and fight and leadership.
Is there any evidence that backs these up? Or any other (real not hyperbolic/puerile) decent theories?
All the negativity aside, Duke is 5-2 in the ACC and I’ve seen no one in the conference, aside from Clemson, who can play at as high a level, and Duke has already beaten the Tigers twice. Now, you can say that the ACC is down this year, which is probably true, but if you look at the sched Duke has won all it’s home and neutral games, blowing out a couple of pretty good non-conference teams in the process, and has won the road games it should have. Duke will win the conference and be favorites to win the ACC tourney.
Let’s face it – Georgetown played their asses on saturday – they would have beaten anyone (incl Cuse, KU, UK, Texas) at home playing that well, and convincingly. If Georgetown had only shot 60% from the floor and 70% from the line Duke would’ve been in the game with a few minutes left.
Interesting article, but theory is theory. That’s why they play, and right now, Duke is not that good. Stats and theories don’t win championships. Getting blown out says a lot about a team to me. Our championship teams NEVER got handled like what has happened already 2x this year. I love Duke, but I’m skeptical about how far these guys will go if they don’t step it up.
Garo,
I’m no Duke apologist…see my comments about Duke’s loss being embarrassing, etc.
That being said, you’ve gotta keep things in perspective. Duke lost to Georgetown by 12 points, they lost to NC State by 14, and they lost to GT and Wisc. by 4 (I believe). That’s hardly getting blown out.
On the other hand, their average margin of victory this season is 19.1…how does that figure in your analysis?
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Good points, all. Especially Justin McTeer — I think you’ve hit the nail on the head. Duke does two things that keep it high in the rankings every year: 1) play a tough non-conference sched, with almost no cupcakes and plenty of teams that are beatable, but ranked in the top 100 (St. Johns, Tulsa, Gonzaga). Duke pads its computer numbers with wins over mediocre teams, not cupcakes. 2) Duke rarely, if ever, has mental mistakes and emotional letdowns lead to losses against truly inferior opponents (the K factor, if you will). Almost every other team has its numbers hurt by losing to teams that it shouldn’t have lost to. NC State aside, Duke just doesn’t lose to truly inferior opponents, particularly at home or on neutral courts.
So that’s why the numbers are high. Here’s why they’re wrong: March basketball is different. Things that worked in December don’t work in March, and while the computers catch many of the nuances of the game, they can’t seem to put their finger on those teams that are poised to underachieve or overachieve in March. The last time I saw Duke play great March basketball was at the ACC tournament in 2006, when the guard play was strong, and Shelden Williams was an absolute force inside on defense, helping on all drives. I just don’t think the computers help to spot some of the holes that teams have. Duke looks good on paper, but anyone that has watched this team play knows that the real weakness is that they have no big men that can play both offense and defense. Most of the time, Duke gets away with it. In March, when some teams will be at their best, some team will be able to exploit this weakness.
You are all overlooking the extended playing time of the perimeter guys (I know it’s a dead horse):all average at least 35 minutes.. By tournament time they have tired legs.
Jim,
I disagree with that belief. I think it’s a bit of a cop out. You can’t tell me that 5 extra minutes twice a week burns out these athletic kids in the best shape of their life…especially if K is helping to reserve their legs in practice.
Justin,
Very inciteful…can’t argue with any of that.