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When one looks back on the ACC media’s pre season picks it is clear that some adjustments need to be made.  Al Featherston takes a detailed look at every team and ponders how each team might rate today in this detailed article.  Everyone has their own take of course, but Al spared few details with his personal analysis.  I would probably rank Boston College a bit higher and Clemson a tad lower, but that is just another opinion.  I think it’s clear to see that their will be a lot of jockeying for there is a good deal of balance.  Of course, it will all come down to match ups to see who rises to the top and those should be fun to watch as the teams start to face off twice a week or more for the rest of the season.  What’s your take on the ACC to this point?  Feel free to comment.  Next up on the Raycom Duke blog – Why Jon Scheyer is the clear choice for ACC POY going into conference play.

It is a true testament to Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski the level of excellence that Duke plays to every year. Take note of last season- a 30-7 record, 11-5 in the ACC, a 17th ACC Tournament championship and another trip to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Duke fans have almost become complacent with these incredible seasons that seem to come effortlessly year in and year out. It was not a smooth year with three changes at the point guard position, but the results were the same. This year should prove to be just as successful.

There are some losses to absorb for Coach K and his staff. They knew senior Greg Paulus was leaving and had an idea Gerald Henderson would go to the NBA, but the surprise was losing soph Elliott Williams. His transfer has left the backcourt a little thin but this is still a talented team. Kyle Singler may be one of the best all-around players in the league. He should be much more effective moving back to his more natural position at small forward. He should vie for player of the year honors in conference. Duke’s most important player may be Jon Scheyer. He will be a primary ball handler and is one of the most reliable three-point shooters on the squad. Just as important will be the growth of Nolan Smith. His role changed a lot last year but he has worked hard this summer and has been very impressive in preseason workouts. The Devils have a lot of size returning. Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas and Miles Plumlee all saw action and should give Coach K options and combinations to work with along the front line.

The freshman class will get an opportunity to all contribute. Mason Plumlee, Miles’ brother, is probably the furthest along. He has more of an edge to him than Miles and will use that toughness to take pressure off Singler. 6′10″ Ryan Kelly is more of a skilled perimeter player who needs to add a little more size to his frame. Duke got a bonus when Andre Dawkins decided to graduate from high school early and come to Duke in August. He is very athletic and will give Duke some nice depth on the perimeter.

The biggest key for Duke this year will be the health of their core players- Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith. Having them on the court will be critical not only for their production but also for their leadership. How quickly the freshmen adapt and produce will also be a major factor. Look for Plumlee to acclimate the quickest. This will be as big a Duke team as we have seen and they could utilize that by playing a little more zone on defense but the depth there will be critical because the league, in general, is big. At the end of the day, Coach K is worth 20 wins by himself. How great this Duke team becomes will be determined in the other 20 games. This team will once again be a factor not only in the ACC but nationally as well.

–Mike Gminski

Okay. That one word really can sum up what I saw and what I’m feeling after watching Duke beat St. John’s Saturday afternoon. The Devils were pretty much in control for most of the game (up 16 at halftime), letting the Red Storm get back within four with about five and a half to play, but eventually pulled away to win by nine.

Again, I’m okay with this outcome because I felt like Duke played…okay.

Let me explain and tell you what I saw:

I saw that the big three again took most of the shots. It’s time for me just to accept the simple fact that Duke will primarily be a three-man team again this year. For the record, Duke has taken 503 shots this season. The big three (Scheyer, Smith, Singler) have taken a stunning 297 of those shots (and that’s with Nolan missing two games this season). Three players are accounting for 59% of Duke’s attempts.I’m not a math wizard, but that’s a lot and that’s not a good thing.

Last year, the big three (Singler, Scheyer and Henderson) took 60% of the team’s shot. While the lack of diversity in the offense did end up costing Duke in the NCAA Tournament, it was good enough to lead Duke to another 30+ win season and the ACC tournament crown. That’s because while those three took 60% of the shots, they did manage to contribute to 58% of the scoring.

This year’s version of the big three are taking 59% of the shots, but they’re responsible for only 52% of the scoring. A lot of shots, but not enough are finding its way into the hole.

Against St. John’s, the big three accounted for a stunning 66% (43 of 65 shots). For the record, the other seven players tonight, were 13-22 from the floor. Just saying.

I saw Duke’s Big’s play better, although I’m not ready to nominate them All-ACC quite yet (joking). While the brother Plumlee’s got the start, Coach K clearly was more comfortable with the seniors (Zoubek and Thomas). The obvious answer is simple…defense. While Thomas and Zoubek probably couldn’t beat your grandmother one-on-one, they can be disruptive in the paint and they can get nasty on the boards, especially in Cameron.

Tonight, Zoubek/Thomas  combined for 48 minutes, grabbing 15 boards (7 offensive) and actually scored 22 combined points (11 each) on 9-12 shooting. Those are great numbers (although a few more boards wouldn’t hurt). The Plumlee’s only combined for 16 minutes, scoring six points and grabbing six boards.

I still feel like in the long run, Duke’s best option will be to have the brothers on the court. However, against the Storm, Zoubek and Thomas were more disruptive, especially against hefty St John’s forward, Sean Evans, who was eating the Plumlee’s alive early on.

Anyhow, I’m going to have much, much more on the Duke big men later in the week.

I saw Scheyer get another six assists, while not turning the ball over at all…again. I’m sorry, but this stat is pretty amazing. This was the fifth time this season Scheyer has not turned the ball over one time, not once. He has an astonishing 10.1/1 assist-to-turnover rate. That’s 41 assists to 4 turnovers. Currently, he’s sixth in the ACC in assists.

I saw that Jon Scheyer read this blog. Actually, I have no proof that he has ever heard of this blog, but he certainly took my advice. After the Wisconsin defeat, I suggested that Scheyer needed to stop trying to get fouled when taking his shot and just take his shot. Against St. John’s, he did exactly that. I can recall only one time where he did one of those double-pump, slam his body into a defender, hoping to get fouled. While he still only hit 4-14, we’re not too stressed, that’s about par for Scheyer this year.

I saw Andre Dawkins disappear, at least for a day. He didn’t actually disappear, playing 21 minutes, but he just never got into the flow of the game. He took only five shots, hitting only one. If I had one bit of advice for the rookie, it would be…get aggressive. He’s a stud shooter, but he’s also athletic enough to create his own shot. It doesn’t appear he has the confidence yet to take the ball and make something happen. Duke’s chance of making it deep into the tournament this year would improve greatly if Dawkins didn’t resign himself to just floating around the three-point line. Duke needs a fourth scorer and he can be that guy almost every night.

Random question of the Day: Why did we give a scholarship to Olek Czyz? While he started in place of Nolan Smith for the first two games, he hasn’t sniffed the court in Duke’s last four and it appears he won’t again this season, unless it’s mop up duty in blowouts. It’s a question I asked back when he first received the offer and I still haven’t figured out the answer.

It’s one thing to have a player not work out, but this is Duke. When did Duke start wasting scholarships on a kid who will never start and will be lucky to ever be in the regular rotation? That’s what walk-ons are for. I don’t want to tear the kid down, if anything, I’m questioning the coaching staff? Again, we’re Duke, coached by Coach K, three-time National Champion.  I just don’t see the reasoning. Sorry.

Stat that may only impress me: Brian Zoubek has more offensive rebounds (34) than defensive rebounds (29). He’s currently second in the ACC in offensive rebounds

Overall, we’re still in a ‘wait and see’ mode. It looks like we have exactly what we had last year, maybe even less, when you consider that Nolan Smith, despite his improvement, is not and can never be Gerald Henderson.

If you’re looking for something positive moving forward, keep in mind, Duke is a solid 7-1 despite the fact our three best players have actually struggled to shoot the ball. Singler, Scheyer and Smith have combined to shoot only 40% from the floor. Those numbers you would have to think will improve.

On another note…I got to watch the North Carolina/Kentucky game and I know I’m not the only person who walked away overwhelmed by John Wall’s ability. He is so damn quick with the ball, but his crossover is down-right brutal. Any Duke fan has to be saying to themselves…if only.

You saw just how valuable he was when went out with the cramps, UNC was able to chip away at that lead. Even when he came back, he just wasn’t moving at the same speed as he was in the first half. Props to the Tar Heels for the great comeback, but props for a young Kentucky team for holding on for the win.

If I was a coach (which I would never be allowed to be) and I had to game plan a way to beat Kentucky, it would be…

1) Don’t let Wall beat me. I know, easier said than done. However, don’t let him have his points. If Kentucky is going to beat me, it’s going to be because John Wall dished out about 15 assists. If they’re going to beat me, it will be thanks to players like Bledsoe, Miller and Dodson were raining threes. UNC was able to come back this weekend (besides Wall’s cramps) because Kentucky couldn’t hit those open threes anymore. The trick though, would have to be…

2) Play zones, the whole game. I would rotate between a box-and-1, triangle-and-2 and a basic 2-3 Syracuse Orange. You have to, have to, have to keep him out of the lane. When a basket is made, you guard him the full court, make him work for every dribble. A frustrated point guard is a bad point guard. If he tries to drive into the lane, drop everyone, and I mean everyone, into the paint. Don’t let me get a clean shot, don’t let him dish for an easy duck to the big men. Force him to pass the ball back out every time. If Kentucky shoots 35 threes, that’s a good thing.

3) Foul DeMarcus Cousins every time he touches the ball. This is a man who makes a living three-feet from the basket. He shoots nearly 55% from the floor. However, he only makes 51% of his free throws. Bring in the scrubs from the bench and hack away.

4) Slow down. Again, it comes down to frustration. Make a Caliapri-led team play defense for 35+ seconds and you’ll find a good shot. However, make sure…

5) You run when you miss. I was most impressed with Kentucky’s great ability to grab a missed shot and sling it out the Wall, who was already sprinting down court. I couldn’t count the number of fast-break baskets UK got behind the Carolina defense. However, while Kentucky deserves plenty of praise for this, it’s not like Carolina is known for their defense. I saw more often than not when the Tar Heels missed a shot, the guards would run into the paint, even though they had almost zero chance of a rebound.

If you’re going to face Kentucky, you’re going to have to rely on your tall guys to get those boards. As soon as the ball is up, your guards need to be back. Too often, the UNC guards were back-peddling as Wall simply drove pass them.

6) Finally, hit your three’s and make your free throws. Will Graves hit 4-7, the rest of the Tar Heels went 3-13. Kentucky only shot 63% from the foul stripe, but UNC was only 7-13, including a couple front ends of a 1-and-1.

Do all that and you might have a chance to beat Kentucky.

What I saw wasn’t pretty. The Badgers never trailed, always finding a way to pull ahead every time Duke got close. Using an extremely patient offense, Wisconsin always seem to take the perfect shot, often with less than 10 seconds on the shot clock.

So what did I see?

I saw that Duke’s big men were pretty worthless tonight. I’m talking mainly about Zoubek and Thomas. After four years, neither has shown that they belong at this level. These are nice kids, so I hate to be so harsh, but tonight, they had no business being on the floor. Their sole purpose tonight was to take up space on the floor and commit fouls.

For the record, the pair scored zero points, shooting 0-4 from the floor. They grabbed six rebounds, committing six fouls. In reality, it was just sad watching how much they struggled to put the ball in the basket, despite standing directly under it, while Wisconsin’s big men nailed the long-range shots and slammed home the close ones.When people talk about Duke being nonathletic, this is what they are talking about (big men with no agility).

In the end, this was Duke’s downfall. With the game on the line, Duke became a one-dimensional team, with our ball handlers rolling through screens around the three-point line. If it wasn’t for Dawkins, this could have gotten real ugly at the end.

I saw Jon Scheyer too busy trying to get fouled, he forgot how to take a shot. I get it. He’s trying to get to the line. He’s money from the charity stripe (6-6 tonight), but against Wisconsin, Scheyer kept passing up a cleaner shot in hopes of getting fouled and more often than not, the ref didn’t feel like there was one. My advice going forward…Jon, take your shot. Let the foul calls come to you. Enough with the double pumps. Enough with slamming yourself into the big man. Take the shot. We needed your shot tonight.

Speaking of Scheyer, I saw him again struggle to guard the smaller guard. Tryon Hughes had a field day against the Devils and against Scheyer. He drove into the lane with ease, finding easy lay ups or open big men to hand the ball off to. He finished with 26 points, half of which I could swear came with the shot clock below 10 seconds.

I saw how good Kyle Singler could be. He hit his first seven shots and was Duke’s only scorer in the first half. He showed great ability to go both left and right into the lane. Unfortunately he cooled, hitting only three of his last 10 shots. Of course the problem is, when teams start to focus on him inside the lane, there is no one to get the ball to.

I saw Andre Dawkins become a man. It really is a shame we can’t get this guy a starting spot (impossible because we would have no guards on the bench). When no one was willing/able to make a shot, Dawkins single-handily brought Duke back in it with three-straight threes when the Devils were down 11 with three minutes to go.

I saw Nolan Smith taking too many shots. It’s not that I don’t want him to, but if he’s going to toss it up 17 times, he can’t miss 12 of them. In fact, over his last two games he’s taken a team high 39 shots, but only made 10 baskets. I appreciate the confidence, but the confidence needs to translate into baskets.

I saw Mason Plumlee in a Duke uniform for the first time tonight. He played only ten minutes, mostly in the first half and he looked timid. I can’t blame him though. This was his first college game, on the road against a solid Wisconsin team, with a wrist that is not completely healed. I’m no doctor, but I’d give him a couple weeks and a few more games before we start to know what he’s going to deliver.

I saw only eight players play tonight. The only person missing was Ryan Kelly. I would have loved to see him on the floor just for a little bit. Wisconsin was giving tons of room to our big men up top, but none, other than Kelly, has the ability to hit a deep ball.

I saw a Devils team that couldn’t force a turnover. Wisconsin turned the ball over only four times tonight. This is the other thing that people are talking about when they say Duke is not athletic enough. No one is quick enough to get into a passing lane or sneak in front of a big man. Can you remember a time when Duke has run a successful trap this season?

Overall, what I saw tonight is what we saw a lot of last year, but we kind of knew that didn’t we? With no inside scoring and no defensive speed on the outside, it’s going to be the same story as last year. Wisconsin had big men who could score and a point guard who could drive pass our guards.However, this defeat lies firmly on the shoulders of the big men. They brought nothing to the table tonight.

For the second straight game, Duke’s scoring (except for Dawkins) disappeared in the final 10 minutes.How bad was it? From the 12:15 mark to :25 seconds left in the game, Andre Dawkins was 3-3, the rest of the Duke team (and when I say “rest” I mean Scheyer, Singler and Smith) went 0-12 from the floor.

Again though, that type of shooting says less about those guys and more about the big men. The simple fact is, teams know that Duke won’t dump the ball inside, so there is zero reason to defend inside the paint. After 30 minutes, the Duke guards (and Singler) didn’t even bother to pretend to go inside (in this game and against Connecticut). Miles Plumlee was the only big man to score tonight and all three of his points came off passes when someone else drove in and got doubled team.

This is not acceptable. After four years, are you really telling me neither Lance Thomas or Brian Zoubek have developed a single go-to shot? Can you tell me they can’t figure out how to play the high-low game? When Zoubek gets the ball down low, he looks like an American kid who just had a cricket bat handed to him…he doesn’t know what to do with it.

Our big men have two purposes on the floor, rebound and screen. Tonight, they couldn’t even do the latter.

In the end, this is college basketball and a loss is just one loss. Hopefully, the team will learn from it and it will make them better. I still believe the key for Duke will be Mason Plumlee. I still think he’s going to be something special inside. The question is, can he make up for lost time and be the inside guy Duke needs now?

Here are this week’s ACC Power Rankings. It was a rough week for the ACC, as it seemed almost everyone suffered a loss. The Devils earned the top spot after winning the NIT, while NC State moves up nearly half-a-dozen slots. The biggest loser was Maryland, who had a rough time in Hawaii. Enjoy.

1. Duke
The victory over No 13 Connecticut boosts the Blue Devils to No 1 in the ACC. John Scheyer’s 10.3/1 assist-to-turnover ratio should impress even the greatest Scheyer haters.

2. North Carolina
Larry Drew’s 10 assists against Nevada was a good sign for the Tar Heels faithful. However, a new question has emerged…which freshman will Coach Williams be able to rely on once ACC play starts, particularly at the guard spot? Strickland and McDonald are shooting in the low 30’s, hitting only 1-11 from behind the three-point line.

3. Clemson
A great comeback win over No 10 Butler will help Tigers fans get over the A&M loss, but Trevor Booker needs to get more shots. Four times in seven games, he has failed to take double-digit shots. He’s an All-ACC player, get him the damn rock.

4. Florida State
Solomon Alabi only hit four shots against Marquette Sunday night, but his last one with 11.9 seconds left, handed the Seminoles a one-point win over a solid Marquette squad. Great players make great plays at big moments, that’s what mamma always taught me.

5. Georgia Tech
Freshman Derrick Favors is hitting an astonishing .722 from the floor. Over his last three games, he’s hit 18 of his last 21 shots. However, he has yet to take 10 or more shots in a game this season. Are you seeing a theme here in my week three rankings?

6. North Carolina State
There have been plenty of early season losses in the ACC and I’ll admit, I’m surprised the Wolfpack wasn’t one of those. Junior Tracy Smith has led the way, averaging a double-double (15/11).

7. Virginia Tech
The Hokies have eight players averaging double-digit minutes, yet only two players are averaging double-digit points. Malcolm Delaney leads the team with 21.8 per game. He can thank his ability to get to the line. He has taken 43 free throws so far. The next top-three guys on the team have combined to take just 41 free throws.

8. Wake Forest
Not only did Wake lose to William & Mary, the game was no contest.  It didn’t help that the Demon Deacons took 36 three-point shots, hitting only 10. While guard Ishmael was the worst (2-9), Aminu was a solid 0-7 from three, 4-18 all together.

9. Miami
There are cupcakes and then there are cupcakes. The Canes may be 7-0 but three of those wins came against schools I didn’t even know existed until I saw them on Miami’s schedule (Nova Southeast, Florida Gulf Coast and my personal favorite, USC Upstate).

10. Maryland
Hawaii was unkind for the Terps. After taking down Chaminade, they were no match for Cincinnati and Wisconsin. The first half was the problem. In those two losses, they’ve been outscored in the first 20 minutes, 58-35.

11. Boston College
Where’s the D? The Eagles have given up 80+ in four games, including both their loses. In their 12-point defeat to Northern Iowa, BC allowed the Panthers to shoot 65% from the field.

12. Virginia
For a guard, Sylven Landesberg really can’t shoot the long ball. A year after hitting only 31% of his three pointers, he’s at 22% so far this season. Of course, he’s only taken nine threes this season.